Saturday, July 22, 2017

Dollar Decision

Future Dollar direction may be determined this week, as the FED meets for what many describe as a ho-hum decision to maintain their previous stance.  Pundits expect nothing special from them, and that the reserve currency will continue its current slide; however, the FOMC meeting will be followed by Q2 GDP results on Friday, which could have a great effect.

If next week replicates the last two, a candlestick Three Black Crows pattern will have formed.  This is very bearish, as even the previous action on this Dollar Index chart (DXY) makes clear.  However, if past is prologue, a hammer or a spike is just as likely, which would complete a Head and Shoulders bottom.  It's a coin toss, and most folks are betting tails.

Currency Conundum
When will these gaps fill?
How did this happen?

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Dollar Rebound?

Two months prior to the election, the Dollar Index (DXY) broke away from its strong Primary Uptrend support line to max out at 103.82 by year end.  Then the Dollar declined – along with great expectations from the Donald Trump presidency.

With the honeymoon long since over it is now possible that the Index has finally bottomed.  If so, yesterday's low print of 94.48 (actually 94.47+) matches that of the September 8th breakout low.

There is a gap at about 100 to fill
(clearly seen in the Dollar/Euro pair):

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Dow Transports Signal Higher

For at least three decades the Dow Jones Transportation Average has signaled the move both lower and higher in the Industrials.  A market correction now will strengthen the current signal:

What can go wrong?
Anything left to chance!

Saturday, July 8, 2017

The DOW's Shrinking Headroom

Sans correction, overbought at 23,014:
Stiff upside resistance, never broken:
10% correction will fill gaps, but bust supports:
Rock solid, when all else fails:
Present Value above 8000.
In a Curving Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

GDX Under Pressure

The Trump Range must hold!

GDX has paralleled the recent Gold breakdown, and further declines are almost certain; however, this dark side will turn much brighter if its potential E-Breakout pattern indeed prevails, esp. after closing the December gap.  FOMC minutes later today!

As the culmination of a long term E-Build, such an upside thrust could well ignite GDX to levels not seen in over 4 years.  Per Bill Meridian, on Larry Pesavento's show this morning, Friday may mark important turning points in many markets.  Gold's seasonal pattern augments this thinking.

On dark days seek light.
On bright days, shade.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Gold Slammed

A One-Two Punch!

Both the short term Primary and Secondary uptrend support lines for GLD have been violated, insuring significant downside after a possible relief rally into Fat Thumb Monday, to about 117.50 (1238).  In tandom, the Dollar has reversed and may soon fill the USD/EUR gap which is up at around parity (100) in the Index.

If Gold continues to hold above its current Secondary Support line, presently at about 1170, a long term E-Build will have formed that could lead to a breakout well into the 1400s.  This will take time.

In a Curving Universe
the Straight Line is King!