Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Dollar Rebound?

Honeymoon over. Back to business!

Two months prior to the election, the Dollar Index (DXY) broke away from its strong Primary Uptrend support line to max out at 103.82 by year end.  Then the Dollar declined – along with great expectations from the Donald Trump presidency.

With the honeymoon long since over it is now possible that the Index has finally bottomed.  If so, yesterday's low print of 94.48 (actually 94.47+) matches that of the September 8th breakout low.


There is a gap at about 100 to fill
(clearly seen in the Dollar/Euro pair):


For many a Ying,
Yang awaits!

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Dow Transports Signal Higher

For at least three decades the Dow Jones Transportation Average has signaled the move both lower and higher in the Industrials.  A market correction now will strengthen the current signal:


What can go wrong?
Anything left to chance!

Saturday, July 8, 2017

The DOW's Shrinking Headroom

Sans correction, overbought at 23,014:
 

Stiff upside resistance, never broken:
 

10% correction will fill gaps, but bust supports:
 

Rock solid, when all else fails:
 
Present Value above 8000.

In a Curving Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Wednesday, July 5, 2017

GDX Under Pressure

The Trump Range must hold!

GDX has paralleled the recent Gold breakdown, and further declines are almost certain; however, this dark side will turn much brighter if its potential E-Breakout pattern indeed prevails, esp. after closing the December gap.  FOMC minutes later today!


As the culmination of a long term E-Build, such an upside thrust could well ignite GDX to levels not seen in over 4 years.  Per Bill Meridian, on Larry Pesavento's show this morning, Friday may mark important turning points in many markets.  Gold's seasonal pattern augments this thinking.


On dark days seek light.
On bright days, shade.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Gold Slammed

A One-Two Punch!

Both the short term Primary and Secondary uptrend support lines for GLD have been violated, insuring significant downside after a possible relief rally into Fat Thumb Monday, to about 117.50 (1238).  In tandom, the Dollar has reversed and may soon fill the USD/EUR gap which is up at around parity (100) in the Index.


If Gold continues to hold above its current Secondary Support line, presently at about 1170, a long term E-Build will have formed that could lead to a breakout well into the 1400s.  This will take time.

In a Curving Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Dollar Reversal?

It may be shifting into 3rd!

Too many folks are forecasting a Dollar demise in the face of increasing FOMC support and liberal wishes for Trump administration destruction.  Dollar Index (DXY) charts suggest that a reversal to the upside may be happening – now.



In a Curving Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Thursday, June 29, 2017

GOLD: Primary Support Broken

Secondary Support at 1232

A weakening Dollar and falling markets didn't help as Gold broke through its Primary Support a second time today.  Although a bounce may take it above the Primary briefly, the short term downtrend has been confirmed.  GLD Secondary Support is now at about 117 (1232).


The general markets were hammered but recovered somewhat, and only the NASDAQ Composite and 100 broke short term Primary Support lines.  Their gap zones farther down will be filled, possibly at long term Primary Support – the question is:  When?


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Monday, June 26, 2017

Gold Support Test

Deep violation overnight!

GLD broke severely to the downside at 4:02 am, reaching a precipitous low of 117.58 (1240).  Although it held that low, the physical continued falling to 1237 and then bounced, as did GLD. 


Throughout the day it flirted with the dark side, but its Primary has held so far, and we await the morrow.


Deflation fears and disappointment that upside resistance has held so firmly, along with Italian banking activity, may have spurred a big trader; however, the Dollar Index rocketed as Gold tanked, but then collapsed to below the sell-off point and even to a five day low.  Very strange.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Gold Bull Support Limit

Its rises with time!

Using the Straight Line method, for Gold to remain in a bull market, the current Primary Uptrend must hold.  This is because the previous Primary was breached without Gold then reaching a new high.  One such break is allowed, and that was the one! The present value of current support is 109 (GLD) or about 1154, and it rises at a constant rate as time unfolds.

Some folks speculate that the precious may go below even today's limit, which would bring into question whether Gold really is in a bull market.  My thinking is that there will be good support at around 1200.  Also this oddity: the Trump Range overlaps what some chartists call the Creek, which is an apparent coincidence.  Go GOLD!


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

GOLD GAP CLOSED

As previously noted, now GLD must hold or test the next support level.  Particularly if the main markets correct, this should be a pretty good run in the Gold Bull.  Go GOLD!


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

DOW Top?

For nearly a decade, the Dow Jones Industrials Average had backed off whenever encountering its stiff uptrend resistance line.  Never has this obstacle been breached, but the DOW will be trying again – possibly this week.


After enduring at least five head butts along the way, it is unlikely that a breakthrough is now at hand.  This may be the time for those low down glaring gaps to be expunged, and not left behind to populate another Crashville.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Sunday, June 18, 2017

Trendline Magic Legend

COLORS


Primary Uptrend Support Lines are straight lines in charting which connect at least two price bar lows, and where there are no breaks when extended in either direction (which differentiates them from Secondary Lines).  Additional data points will strengthen the relevance of a support or resistance line, somewhat like exponents in math.

Naturally Rising Support


Previous Primary Lines can assist in determining the current health of a company (or whatever else is being charted).  Their present value naturally rises through time at a constant rate, until a downtrend takes them out or the charted entity ceases to exist.

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Saturday, June 17, 2017

Will POT Smoke?

The resource sector is either simmering for a lift-off or will peter out as deflation sucks life from the land.  Potash Corp (POT) is a bellwether, and its current shallow chart uptrend bodes well for them all.


Although in a major downtrend reversal rather than an uptrend retracement, e.g. US Steel, POT's steadily tempered turnaround, which began in January, has yet to be demurred.  Relentless upward pressure of late has shown no sizable flaw, such as was warned against by the "Alert" in 2014 before the demise of its last primary uptrend line.


Two variations of E-Breakout pattern are evident here, one long term and one intermediate term.  Nearest always presages farthest, whether with success or failure, so the more recent is focused upon.  These are the ABCs where F means success!


Shooting Stars are usually retested, and often surpassed, ergo optimism.  POT's bottom may be in, but summer is here, and the boyz are away, or so they say, while others play.  High volumes would mean that they're not, and that this bull is now underway.

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Friday, June 16, 2017

US Steel Is Ready!

Long or Short?

Since January 2016, US Steel (X) has broken three primary uptrend lines, but each break came only after new highs had been achieved.  Companies that show consistent action like this are ideal trading vehicles.

X is now at a critical juncture, where its strong secondary uptrend line may soon be tested.  If it rises significantly, a new primary uptrend line will have been established and new highs will become a real possiblility.  If it breaks, a good shorting opportunity will likely be posssible as it back tests.


Optimum Trade Zone!

The Chapman Wave reset at 19.52 is a good bogey to work around.  A two lows stop loss at {19.51} was available at the close today, the risk being about 3.3% (20.15/19.51).  Other trough lows are at 19.20, 19.16, and the six month low of 18.55.  Even stopped at {18.54} the risk would have been less than 10%.

Big buck traders should keep an eye on this one.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Monday, June 12, 2017

Critical NASDAQ 100 Support

Four Data Points!

None of the major indices – DOW Industrials, S&P 500, or NASDAQ Composite – have broken their positive secondary uptrend lines; however, today before 10am the NASDAQ 100 formed a fourth data point on its support line (light blue) and reversed powerfully.  As every higher high on the NDX chart is/was a new all-time high, the air gap at about 5480 is a strong downside draw, because there is nothing behind it.  This gap area will fill.  The question is: When?


In early summer 2014 the Dollar Index hovered around 80; however, a long term bottoming process had been taking place, and its natural course was to the upside – toward a large 2002 gap just above parity.  From that July to March 2015, the Index rose to over 100.  Filling that gap took over 12 years!

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Friday, June 9, 2017

Gold is Correcting

Initial Target: 1240

Gold's new high may soon be tested, and possibly even superseded somewhat, but its corrective process likely began this past week.  Surpassing the Trump Range is becoming a challenge.

A logical downside target in GLD is at that yawning mid-May breakaway gap.  The primary uptrend line will give good support around there, but, because a new high was made, this line can be broken without harm to the overall Gold Bull.  Strong support below that is at the secondary uptrend line (hashed) which was established by a hammer low on May 9th.


Dollar Confirmation

On Friday, the Dollar Index downtrend reversed at its Fibonacci Zone base.


Although the significant April 21st gap appeared to have closed on May 11th, it was not confirmed by the EUR/USD pair, which shows a significant gap at around 1.08. This gap will close, and a rise in DXY to around 100 is expected.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Wednesday, May 24, 2017

JDST This Time!

Hauntingly similar to JNUG two weeks ago, an extremely shallow uptrend line in JDST yesterday gave a great risk/reward entry below 70.00 {stop 68.73} which topped out today at the interesting 85.50, while the target of 22.50 or better for JNUG may still be in play after its deep retracement.


Stay Tuned!


Wednesday, May 17, 2017

JNUG: An E-Build Study

Sideways Wedge Pattern

The E-Build is a sideways wedge pattern, here with staggered ABCDE notation, which presages a potential E-Breakout.  Often enough the trend direction is unclear until the E-Point is determined, and it may require the B to become A, etc.  Nested E-Builds, as in this example, strengthen the move significantly.


Combined with the recent shallow angle uptrend base in JNUG, this entry was both low risk and likely to finish higher than usual.  A trading range peak of 22.50 is possible – maybe more.

Stay Tuned!


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

GLD: A Trendline Study

Here, the first occuring and steepest angle uptrend line in GLD had three shorter uptrend breaks within it.  Topping in February, it broke, and bottomed in March.  From that low newer highs were achieved in April, finally breaking a less steep uptrend line in early May to hold at the current very shallow angle line – matching the Trump Range base!


Only one significant break is generally acceptable for such trendlines, and then a new high must be forthcoming or recent lows will likely be tested.  This is a strong tendency, and the inverse is true for downtrends.

The Trump Range remains significant resistance, enabling a measured and relentless move upward, which is just what the doctor ordered.

Stay Tuned!


Thursday, May 11, 2017

Low Risk JNUG Buy

Already up over ten times risk!

An extremely shallow angle secondary uptrend line enabled a very low risk entry into JNUG on Tuesday, where any buy below 14.50 {stop 14.19} is now up over ten times that risk (close Thursday 17.65).  Using the "two previous lows" method to determine stop losses, a retest buy on Monday meant about .70 risk {stop 13.71} as opposed to .30 or less on Tuesday.


More positives on this chart are studied above.

Stay Tuned!


Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Gold and the Dollar

Swing Trade Bottom?

As a possibility mentioned yesterday, GLD reversed at its uptrend line, and with a candlestick Hammer.  This sometimes means a trend change.  The 115.56 low (1215) was just .07 above the Trump Range base of 115.49.


Concurrently, the Dollar Index (DXY) gap to 99.73 nearly closed, and the day high of 99.69 broke above the April 21st low of 99.65 (its close of 99.98 was a weekend tick).


A potential DXY declining wedge E-Breakout should keep traders on their toes.

Stay Tuned!


Monday, May 8, 2017

Trump Range Resistance

Gold must break through this!

As noted in March, the Trump victory Gold bull trap has created significant resistance, which is ongoing.  The current GLD pullback should hold above 115 (1200-1210), where the Trump Range base intersects a secondary uptrend line.


Many Trump supporters have been burned badly and, even after six months, the wounds may be festering.

Stay Tuned!


Thursday, May 4, 2017

Trendline Magic

Breakdown warning days in advance!

On April 27th the XAU slipped through its uptrend line to 80.36, which signaled a potential breakdown.  After a brief retest up to 83.35, it broke again, and today plummeted to 77.46, just under the March low of 77.62.

Closing above March to 78.26 was a positive sign; however, if downward pressure continues, an ABC-D target of 65.25 will likely be tested.  Below that is the E-Breakdown pattern result of 47.74, with a possible stopper above it at 54.12.


So far, the stubborn Dollar Index has refused to violate support.  Tomorrow's Jobs Report may be the highlight of the week.

Stay Tuned!


Friday, April 28, 2017

Dollar Index Bends

But so far, it has not broken!

The large gap to 99.73 will likely be filled soon.  After that, the last solid Dollar Index strength is a potential E-Breakout from another declining wedge pattern.  Although the secondary uptrend line gave way, the primary is now holding firm – near the top of the Trump election spike.


FED Rates and the Jobs Report characterize the upcoming week.

Stay Tuned!


Friday, April 21, 2017

French Election Connection

Significant Dollar Index strength was signaled in late March by the declining wedge E-Breakout pattern which had closed the big downside gap left over from 2016.

On Thursday, a down day for the Dollar, an uptrend line from last year held firm and augmented the E-Point by morphing it into a simple ABC pattern C-Point. There are also two intra-day upside gaps likely to be filled sooner rather than later.


The French election process may somehow negate all of this power, but for now, the Dollar is strong.

Stay Tuned!


Saturday, April 8, 2017

Another Gap Play

War fears: Gold spurts!

One reaction to the American missile attack on Syria was an immediate spike in the Gold price.  Such synthetic moves usually correct back to reality, and the results of this beginning to happen occurred soon after the markets opened on Friday morning, setting up a good shorting opportunity.

After a big gap-down open, JDST bottomed at 13.00 even, nearly a dollar below its previous close, in a declining wedge E-Breakout pattern (thank you Bill Morris, rip).  A retest buy at about 13.10 {stiff stop 12.99} was followed by higher highs and higher lows until well above 13.94, the previous day's close.  A shooting star top terminated things, but not before over a 12% rise.


Stay Tuned!


Thursday, April 6, 2017

GAP POWER

Dollar-Yen Volatility on FED Minutes Day!

During pre-market hours on Wednesday, the Dollar gapped up significantly against the Yen, as its Index clearly shows.  Most .01 Dollar Index gaps will be filled within a week or two, if not sooner; but this one was 4 times that size and could be counted on to close in short order – which it did, while setting up various long day trades in Gold (currently inverse to the Dollar).


JNUG opened gap-down, recovered somewhat, and then continued even farther down, to the day low of 6.35, not long after the 2pm chaos surrounding release of FOMC minutes from the FED's March 15th meeting.  A retest buy at about 6.45 {stiff stop 6.34} proved to be a more than 8% winner, with the simplest of sell signals: the Dollar gap closed!
 

Stay Tuned!


Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Dollar Index Reversal

Bounce or Trend Change?

Almost scripted, the Dollar and its Index reversed course at 98.86
in the previously noted support area (uptrend line added).
Now that the upside gap at 99.53 has been filled,
there are no clear near term indications.


Taking Small Bites

Some small bites are bigger than others.
Shorting the junior miners via JDST
proved profitable for day traders.
Fibonacci resistance continues


Stay Tuned!