Thursday, June 29, 2017

GOLD: Primary Support Broken

Secondary Support at 1232

A weakening Dollar and falling markets didn't help as Gold broke through its Primary Support a second time today.  Although a bounce may take it above the Primary briefly, the short term downtrend has been confirmed.  GLD Secondary Support is now at about 117 (1232).


The general markets were hammered but recovered somewhat, and only the NASDAQ Composite and 100 broke short term Primary Support lines.  Their gap zones farther down will be filled, possibly at long term Primary Support – the question is:  When?


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Monday, June 26, 2017

Gold Support Test

Deep violation overnight!

GLD broke severely to the downside at 4:02 am, reaching a precipitous low of 117.58 (1240).  Although it held that low, the physical continued falling to 1237 and then bounced, as did GLD. 


Throughout the day it flirted with the dark side, but its Primary has held so far, and we await the morrow.


Deflation fears and disappointment that upside resistance has held so firmly, along with Italian banking activity, may have spurred a big trader; however, the Dollar Index rocketed as Gold tanked, but then collapsed to below the sell-off point and even to a five day low.  Very strange.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Gold Bull Support Limit

Its rises with time!

Using the Straight Line method, for Gold to remain in a bull market, the current Primary Uptrend must hold.  This is because the previous Primary was breached without Gold then reaching a new high.  One such break is allowed, and that was the one! The present value of current support is 109 (GLD) or about 1154, and it rises at a constant rate as time unfolds.

Some folks speculate that the precious may go below even today's limit, which would bring into question whether Gold really is in a bull market.  My thinking is that there will be good support at around 1200.  Also this oddity: the Trump Range overlaps what some chartists call the Creek, which is an apparent coincidence.  Go GOLD!


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

GOLD GAP CLOSED

As previously noted, now GLD must hold or test the next support level.  Particularly if the main markets correct, this should be a pretty good run in the Gold Bull.  Go GOLD!


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

DOW Top?

For nearly a decade, the Dow Jones Industrials Average had backed off whenever encountering its stiff uptrend resistance line.  Never has this obstacle been breached, but the DOW will be trying again – possibly this week.


After enduring at least five head butts along the way, it is unlikely that a breakthrough is now at hand.  This may be the time for those low down glaring gaps to be expunged, and not left behind to populate another Crashville.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Sunday, June 18, 2017

Trendline Magic Legend

COLORS


Primary Uptrend Support Lines are straight lines in charting which connect at least two price bar lows, and where there are no breaks when extended in either direction (which differentiates them from Secondary Lines).  Additional data points will strengthen the relevance of a support or resistance line, somewhat like exponents in math.

Naturally Rising Support


Previous Primary Lines can assist in determining the current health of a company (or whatever else is being charted).  Their present value naturally rises through time at a constant rate, until a downtrend takes them out or the charted entity ceases to exist.

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Saturday, June 17, 2017

Will POT Smoke?

The resource sector is either simmering for a lift-off or will peter out as deflation sucks life from the land.  Potash Corp (POT) is a bellwether, and its current shallow chart uptrend bodes well for them all.


Although in a major downtrend reversal rather than an uptrend retracement, e.g. US Steel, POT's steadily tempered turnaround, which began in January, has yet to be demurred.  Relentless upward pressure of late has shown no sizable flaw, such as was warned against by the "Alert" in 2014 before the demise of its last primary uptrend line.


Two variations of E-Breakout pattern are evident here, one long term and one intermediate term.  Nearest always presages farthest, whether with success or failure, so the more recent is focused upon.  These are the ABCs where F means success!


Shooting Stars are usually retested, and often surpassed, ergo optimism.  POT's bottom may be in, but summer is here, and the boyz are away, or so they say, while others play.  High volumes would mean that they're not, and that this bull is now underway.

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Friday, June 16, 2017

US Steel Is Ready!

Long or Short?

Since January 2016, US Steel (X) has broken three primary uptrend lines, but each break came only after new highs had been achieved.  Companies that show consistent action like this are ideal trading vehicles.

X is now at a critical juncture, where its strong secondary uptrend line may soon be tested.  If it rises significantly, a new primary uptrend line will have been established and new highs will become a real possiblility.  If it breaks, a good shorting opportunity will likely be posssible as it back tests.


Optimum Trade Zone!

The Chapman Wave reset at 19.52 is a good bogey to work around.  A two lows stop loss at {19.51} was available at the close today, the risk being about 3.3% (20.15/19.51).  Other trough lows are at 19.20, 19.16, and the six month low of 18.55.  Even stopped at {18.54} the risk would have been less than 10%.

Big buck traders should keep an eye on this one.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Monday, June 12, 2017

Critical NASDAQ 100 Support

Four Data Points!

None of the major indices – DOW Industrials, S&P 500, or NASDAQ Composite – have broken their positive secondary uptrend lines; however, today before 10am the NASDAQ 100 formed a fourth data point on its support line (light blue) and reversed powerfully.  As every higher high on the NDX chart is/was a new all-time high, the air gap at about 5480 is a strong downside draw, because there is nothing behind it.  This gap area will fill.  The question is: When?


In early summer 2014 the Dollar Index hovered around 80; however, a long term bottoming process had been taking place, and its natural course was to the upside – toward a large 2002 gap just above parity.  From that July to March 2015, the Index rose to over 100.  Filling that gap took over 12 years!

In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!


Friday, June 9, 2017

Gold is Correcting

Initial Target: 1240

Gold's new high may soon be tested, and possibly even superseded somewhat, but its corrective process likely began this past week.  Surpassing the Trump Range is becoming a challenge.

A logical downside target in GLD is at that yawning mid-May breakaway gap.  The primary uptrend line will give good support around there, but, because a new high was made, this line can be broken without harm to the overall Gold Bull.  Strong support below that is at the secondary uptrend line (hashed) which was established by a hammer low on May 9th.


Dollar Confirmation

On Friday, the Dollar Index downtrend reversed at its Fibonacci Zone base.


Although the significant April 21st gap appeared to have closed on May 11th, it was not confirmed by the EUR/USD pair, which shows a significant gap at around 1.08. This gap will close, and a rise in DXY to around 100 is expected.


In a Curved Universe
the Straight Line is King!